In Response To The Press Telegram About The Deadly 90813 Zip Code

The Press Telegram recently ran an article about the 90813 zip code being Long Beach's deadliest zip code. The problem is they are using statistics from ten years ago. In order to be useful to residents of the area, you need to see how things are changing, be it for the better or the worse.

Breakdown of what the numbers say

1. The amount of homicides in Long Beach has declined 76% over 15 years. 
2. The number of homicides in 90813 has decreased over the last three years
3. A map of those homicides shows a heavier cluster south of Anaheim Street.
4. The percentage that represents of Long Beach homicides has fluctuated as the number of homicides in Long Beach has went up and  down since 2011.
5. The number of homicides so far in 2015 in the 90813 zip code was zero as of February 28th, 2015.

The article for the Press Telegram states there have been 110 homicides in the 90813 zip [Central Long Beach], second only to the 90805 zip code, which serves long beach. 

The 90813 gets a worse rap because  because 56 - 58% remain unsolved. In Long Beach overall, about 38% of all homicides go unsolved. A twenty two percent higher unsolved murder rate for the 90813 zip code does look exceptionally bad.

An objective look at three years of numbers:

Long Beach Police have detailed statistics going back around three years. They have less detailed statistics for the last 15. 

Over the last 15 years the murder rate in Long Beach is down by 76%. Violent crime is down by 51% and property crime is down 51%. That said, if homicides are down 76% over 15 years, it's reasonable to infer they are down for every zip code in Long Beach. So overall, that's positive news for Long Beach and inconclusive news/ but probably positive news for the 90813 zip code.

Now, over the last three years, I can break it down crime stats by zip code. And if you look at 90813 over the last three years, there are some bright spots and there are also some patterns. 

Understanding The Homicide Map Above

The above map tracks homicides in from 2012 until 2014. If you see a green dot there was a homicide in 2014. If you see a blue dot, a homicide took place there in 2013. If you see a red dot, a homicide took place in 2012. 

No homicides were mapped above PCH or below 7th street, as that would be out of the 90813 zip code. 

In 2014, there were a total of 23 homicides in Long Beach; The 90813 experienced about 26% of those homicides as there are 6 blue dots. While the city as a whole did experience less murders, 90813 did not. That's neutral news as the city itself saw an overall decrease, but 90813 didn't do any better than last year.

In 2013. the city experienced 33 homicides.  The 90813 zip code experienced 6. That was approximately 18% of all the homicides in Long Beach. While Long Beach's homicide rate was up, the homicide rate in the 90813 murder rate was 25% less than the previous year. That is positive news for the 90813 zip code overall.

In 2012, there were a total of 30 homicides. The 90813 zip code experienced 8. That was about 26% of all homicides in Long Beach that year. That's seems negative because 2012 saw 20% more homicides than the previous year. This doesn't tell you anything about 2012 except it experienced more homicides in the 90813 zip code than the year that followed. Stats for the previous year are not available to compare to 2012.

What Do These Numbers Really Say

Overall, that's an inconclusive analysis of the last three years at best. You really can't even tell from the map if the problem is clustering in certain blocks because there are almost as many single dots as there are clusters. All you can say for certain is the numbers are going down and the occurrences seem to be evenly spread. There is one place where there is some very good news. If you're wondering about the homicide rate in 2015. So far it's two as of February 28th and neither took place in the 90813 zip code.

Update. As of 04/01/2015, the numbers are not yet published for March. However, this morning I saw this bad news in the Long Beach Website feed.  I believe this will fall in the 292 reporting grid. Since this is three years in a row for that grid, you fight this by starting neighborhood watches in that area and taking your neighborhood back.

2nd Update: Based on conversations with police, this was not a shooting, it appears it was a homeless man who died from alcohol poisoning.